MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexico’s headline inflation likely rebounded in the first half of August underpinning prospects that the central bank would cut its key interest rate again, even though the rate remained within the official target, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
The median forecast from 14 participants saw the annual headline inflation rate reaching 3.66%, up from 3.48% in the second half of July. The central bank targets inflation of 3% plus or minus one percentage point.
The core inflation rate, which strips out highly volatile items and is considered a better measure of the price trajectory, was however estimated to have sped up to 4.27% annually, from the prior figure of 4.22%.
The Bank of Mexico slowed its pace of monetary easing earlier in August, cutting its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% – its lowest level in three years.
The minutes of that meeting, where one of the five governing board members voted to keep rates unchanged, are due for release on Thursday, and are expected to shed light on the bank’s next moves.
The market expects the key rate to end 2025 at 7.50% as Mexico’s economy faces weak growth punctuated by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
Compared with the previous two-week period, consumer prices would have according to estimates risen by 0.12%, while the core index is forecast to have increased 0.14%, according to the poll.
Mexico’s national statistics institute is set to releaste inflation data on Friday.
(Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Writing by Noe Torres; Editing by Alistair Bell)
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